Scotland deserves a winning election race

I've been responsible in one way or another for election coverage - at STV and more recently BBC Scotland - for the last 20 years. It feels a bit strange not to be actively involved in this Scottish Parliamentary election, but it is also nice to stand back and view things with a degree of detachment.

Because 2007 is looking like such a tight race, broadcasting takes on a particular importance and significance. I know that you can't beat serious newspapers for depth of coverage. But for politicians, broadcasting is vital in achieving impact - reaching very large numbers of people more directly and (they hope) more persuasively than they can by any other means.

A great soundbite delivered in the morning will probably run all day on television and radio programmes. By the end of the day, it might have been seen or heard by more than a million potential voters. The clip will also feature on news websites, an increasingly important source of information for hundreds of thousands of people, particularly during office lunch breaks.

The politicians and the broadcasters put particular thought and effort into the big live debates involving party leaders or other senior figures. Such programmes would expect to attract about 150,000 viewers, although favourable scheduling on one of the two main channels might nudge that figure up to nearer 250,000. It is a much smaller audience than you get for the main news programmes, but you can be sure that almost all of them are going to vote.

Much of the broadcast coverage will be aimed at Scottish audiences alone, but it is appropriate and important that other parts of the UK get more than just an occasional flavour of the Scottish campaign. The BBC and ITV network news programmes will certainly take an interest, but I think their focus will be on two questions. Can the SNP really win? And what, if anything, does the Scottish election tell us about the battle to come between Gordon Brown and David Cameron?

The UK-wide BBC programmes will certainly start out with the best of intentions - reinforced by orders from above - but it remains to be seen if a high level of attention will be maintained throughout the campaign. That will depend on the pressure from competing news priorities.

Scottish election campaigns can certainly test relations between political parties and broadcasters, which in these parts are never cosy - but nor are they wilfully confrontational. In my experience, the dialogue tends to be robust on occasion, but also honest and open. Certainly, I have never experienced the threatening and colourful outbursts apparently endured by some of my colleagues in London from time to time.

I won't name the senior politician who called me to complain at length that he wasn't included in a particular television programme, when in fact he had been, very prominently. It gradually emerged that he hadn't actually watched the broadcast, but had been contacted about the supposed omission by a concerned supporter who might have been relaxing over a few drinks. As I said, there's a lot of strain around.

In broadcasting newsrooms, in my experience, it is extremely rare to hear someone talk about their political preferences. The clear expectation is that you will bring a detached and fair-minded perspective to any story, whatever your personal views. People don't push political agendas. It is unprofessional, it hurts your reputation, and other journalists spot it a mile off.

The real pros are very guarded indeed. The BBC's political editor in Scotland, Brian Taylor, can talk entertainingly and at length about every aspect of Scottish politics. But I sometimes doubt if even Mrs Taylor knows how her husband votes.

One issue already raised this year is whether or not we will see a direct head-to-head televised confrontation between Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond. Unfortunately, I think this is unlikely. McConnell is a naturally combative politician and might be tempted to agree to such a format. However, his advisers and campaign managers will be adamant that the risks far outweigh any potential benefits.

Salmond is a formidable opponent in live broadcast debates. Every journalist knows it. Every politician knows it, too, whatever they might pretend in public. In any case, a debate involving only Salmond and McConnell would have to take place during February or March. Once we get to April and the campaign proper, the broadcaster guidelines on fair and balanced coverage for the four main parties would effectively rule out any landmark programme with only those two leaders participating.

I am sure, however, that we will see showpiece debates (on both main channels) involving all four leaders from the major parties. Jack McConnell will definitely participate in these programmes. Nowadays in Scottish elections you can cast your vote by proxy, but you can't expect to get elected First Minister by sending someone else in your place. So we will get to see Jack and Alex trading punches, even if Nicol and Annabel are also in the ring at the same time.

If it's difficult to attract viewers to election programmes in 2007, one certainty is that it will be even tougher in 2011. By then viewers will have made an even more profound shift away from linear television schedules. For politicians and for programme-makers, the challenge will be to reach and engage an electorate which is not so much fragmented as atomised.

Keep an eye on the emerging presidential race in the US for an indication of how things are likely to develop here. One obvious trend is the growing importance of short political items on YouTube and the other video-sharing websites. Four years from now, it's likely that a truly viral video clip will have as much impact on an election campaign as anything done in mainstream broadcasting.

But back to 2007. Devolution has revitalised Scottish political debate and is encouraging fresh thinking inside and outside parliament. It's also clear that, whatever mistakes have been made since 1999, public expectations and ambitions have been substantially raised. People are demanding real and rapid solutions to serious problems once regarded as immutable facts of Scottish life: sectarianism, alcohol abuse, poor housing stock. This may make life more difficult for our politicians, but surely also more fulfilling.

Lastly, a word to the party leaders before they hit the television and radio studios in earnest. Don't just play safe and stick to the script. We face huge national and international challenges. People are looking for real leadership. That means vision, passion, integrity, confidence. This is your cup final, so raise your game and enjoy it.

• Blair Jenkins was head of news and current affairs for radio, television and interactive services at BBC Scotland until resigning last July. He was previously director of broadcasting and head of regional programmes at STV.